The major purpose of the paper is considering the possibility of using conjoint analysis in postponed lotteries research. The role of conjoint measurement theory in mathematical psychology is reviewed. Next, the conjoint data analysis method is elaborated; this method is derived from conjoint measurement theory and it is very popular in market research. The focus is on two versions: traditional Conjoint Value Analysis (CVA) and Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC). The results of this research show that changes in the scope of the likelihood of payment, rather than changes in the dimension of deferral, more strongly determine the choices made.

Technical analysis (TA) is a tool believed to support investor’s investment decisions. Even if research has demonstrated that TA cannot be used to make systematic profits over a long time period, it could potentially bring psychological payoffs to its users in the form of enhancing their confidence. In an experimental study we show that: (1) chartists demonstrate
overconfidence in TA usage, believing that they are better than they actually are in TA formation recognition, and that; (2) the act of naming an observed trend as a TA formation brings extra confidence to the chartist, regardless of whether this is a real TA sequence or a random sequence. Thus, both naming an existing TA formation as a TA formation and naming a random sequence as a TA formation result in greater confidence. Also, irrespective of the high popularity of TA among investors, there are marked individual differences in TA followers. In a questionnaire study, we demonstrate that declared positive attitudes toward TA correlate positively with high need for (cognitive) closure (as measured by the Need for Cognitive Closure Scale; NFCS), specifically, desire for predictability.

In this paper, we consider the illusion of control by using Bayesian updating as the rationality model. Our paper contributes twofold. First, we empirically verify that the illusion of control may have two concurrent sources, “emotional” and “rational”. The fi rst one produces biased Bayesian processing due to emotional engagement and the second one yields biases due to prior assumptions on the level of control. Second, we propose a method for identifying these two sources. Moreover we verifi ed two hypotheses H1: The emotional factor causes overestimation of the actual level of control. and H2: The rational factor is responsible for the reverse relationship between observed levels of the illusion of control in three separate situations, when subjects have significant control, moderate or no control. Only the hypothesis H2 received partial empirical support.

While making investment decisions, investors use different reference points that change their values dynamically. In this paper we investigate the impact of the deviation of the portfolio value from different reference points on the investment activity of participants of the investment game, as measured by the turnover volume during the day. We consider the following reference points: (1) the portfolio value before the previous transaction, (2) the initial portfolio value (3) the highest portfolio value and (4) the lowest portfolio value noticed during the time of the game, (5) the best result and (6) the worst result in the game during the transaction day, and (7) the value of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG20). The strongest effects on the investment decisions appear to be the highest and the lowest portfolio value noticed during the time of participation in the game.