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Decyzje

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Year 2018 
Issue 29

Can conjugate prior probability explain the illusion of control?

Marcin Czupryna
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

Elżbieta Kubińska
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

Łukasz Markiewicz
Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego

2018 (29) Decyzje

DOI 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.104

Article contents

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the illusion of control by using Bayesian updating as the rationality model. Our paper contributes twofold. First, we empirically verify that the illusion of control may have two concurrent sources, “emotional” and “rational”. The fi rst one produces biased Bayesian processing due to emotional engagement and the second one yields biases due to prior assumptions on the level of control. Second, we propose a method for identifying these two sources. Moreover we verifi ed two hypotheses H1: The emotional factor causes overestimation of the actual level of control. and H2: The rational factor is responsible for the reverse relationship between observed levels of the illusion of control in three separate situations, when subjects have significant control, moderate or no control. Only the hypothesis H2 received partial empirical support.

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APA style

Czupryna, Marcin & Kubińska, Elżbieta & Łukasz Markiewicz (2018). Can conjugate prior probability explain the illusion of control?. (2018). Can conjugate prior probability explain the illusion of control?. Decyzje, (29), 87-114. https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.104 (Original work published 2018)

MLA style

Czupryna, Marcin and Kubińska, Elżbieta and Łukasz Markiewicz. “Can Conjugate Prior Probability Explain The Illusion Of Control?”. 2018. Decyzje, no. 29, 2018, pp. 87-114.

Chicago style

Czupryna, Marcin and Kubińska, Elżbieta and Łukasz Markiewicz. “Can Conjugate Prior Probability Explain The Illusion Of Control?”. Decyzje, Decyzje, no. 29 (2018): 87-114. doi:10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.104.

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