“Marginal” Manipulations, Or Political Consequences Of Changes To The Structure Of Constituencies In Elections To The Polish Lower Parliamentary Chamber

Flis, Jarosław; Michalak, Bartłomiej

Abstract

In the Polish public debate, one occasionally hears voices advocating the need for a significant change in the system of elections to Sejm, the Lower Chamber of Parliament – the objective of such changes would be to strengthen larger parties. As an example to follow, proponents of these changes cite Hungary, where the changes in electoral rules allowed the party in power to retain majority in the legislative despite reduction in popular support. Opponents of this solution see it as a manifest electoral manipulation. The aim of the present paper is to analyze how the “marginal only” changes to the structure of constituencies electing members of Sejm postulated in the political arena would affect electoral results of individual political groups and what would be the broader political consequences. The author pays particular attention to expected impact of such changes on the majority bonus for the winning party, possible government coalition variants, concentration of party system at parliamentary level and proportionality of elections. Simulation of allocation of seats in Sejm based on votes cast was prepared for three possible variants of the structure of Sejm constituencies, on the basis of historical data (for the 2011 and 2015 elections) and the predicted results of 2019 elections. Comparison of the simulated outcomes with the results obtained in the system currently in place allows to answer the main question posed.

Keywords

electoral districts (1)electoral manipulations (1)deviations from proportionality (1)parliamentary elections in Poland (1)

References

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Taagepera, R., Laakso, M. (1980). Proportionality profi les of west European electoral systems. European Journal of Political Research, 8(4), 423–446. [Google Scholar]
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APA style

Flis, Jarosław & Michalak, Bartłomiej (2019). “Marginal” Manipulations, Or Political Consequences Of Changes To The Structure Of Constituencies In Elections To The Polish Lower Parliamentary Chamber. (2019). “Marginal” Manipulations, Or Political Consequences Of Changes To The Structure Of Constituencies In Elections To The Polish Lower Parliamentary Chamber. Decyzje, (31), 73-90. https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.122 (Original work published 6/2019AD)

MLA style

Flis, Jarosław and Michalak, Bartłomiej. ““Marginal” Manipulations, Or Political Consequences Of Changes To The Structure Of Constituencies In Elections To The Polish Lower Parliamentary Chamber”. 6/2019AD. Decyzje, no. 31, 2019, pp. 73-90.

Chicago style

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[1] Colomer, J.M. (2004). The Handbook of electoral system choice. London: Palgrave Macmillan. [Google Scholar]

[2] Drinóczi, T. (2014). Nowe prawo wyborcze na Węgrzech i jego implikacje. Studia Wyborcze, 18, 85–100. [Google Scholar]

[3] Flis, J. (2014). Złudzenia wyboru. Kraków: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. [Google Scholar]

[4] Flis, J., Michalak, B. (2017). Mieszany system wyborczy – cztery warianty dla Polski. Athenaeum. Polskie Studia Politologiczne, 55, 65–88. doi: 10.15804/athena.2017.55.04 [Google Scholar]

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[6] Flis, J., Słomczyński, W., & Stolicki, D. (2019). Pot and ladle: a formula for estimating the distribution of seats under the Jefferson–D’Hondt method. Public Choice, 1-27. [Google Scholar]

[7] Gallagher, M. (1991). Proportionality Disproportionality and Electoral Systems. Electoral Studies, 10(1), 33–51. [Google Scholar]

[8] Gallagher, M. (2005). Conclusion. W: Gallagher, M., Mitchell, P. (red.), The Politics of Electoral Systems. Oxford–New York: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar]

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[12] Kaminski, M.M. (2001). Coalitional Stability of Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from Poland. American Journal of Political Science, 45(2), 294–312. [Google Scholar]

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[14] Koellner, P. (2005). The LDP at 50: The Rise, Power Resources, and Perspectives of Japan’s Dominant Party. Working Papers Global and Area Studies, 8, 10–11. [Google Scholar]

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[21] Noch, J. (16 stycznia 2016). „Władzy raz zdobytej nie oddamy nigdy...”. 230 JOW-ów i 16 list wojewódzkich to sposób PiS na nietykalność w wyborach. https://natemat.pl/168079,230-jow-ow-i-16list-wojewodzkich-oto-sposob-pis-by-nigdy-nie-stracic-zdobytej-wreszcie-wladzy [Google Scholar]

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[25] Rae, D. (1967). The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Hale: Yale University Press. [Google Scholar]

[26] Reynolds, A., Reilly, B., Ellis, A. (2008). Electoral system design: The new international IDEA handbook. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. [Google Scholar]

[27] Schuster, K., Pukelsheim, F., Drton, M., Draper, N.R. (2003). Seat biases of apportionment methods for proportional representation. Electoral Studies, 22(4), 651–676. [Google Scholar]

[28] Taagepera, R. (1986). Reformulating the cube law for proportional representation elections. American Political Science Review, 80(2), 489–504. [Google Scholar]

[29] Taagepera, R. (2007). Predicting Party Sizes. The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar]

[30] Taagepera, R., Laakso, M. (1980). Proportionality profi les of west European electoral systems. European Journal of Political Research, 8(4), 423–446. [Google Scholar]

[31] Taagepera, R., Sikk, A. (2010). Parsimonious Model for Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration On the Basis of Electoral System. Party Politics, 16(2). [Google Scholar]

[32] Taagepera, R., Shugart, M.S. (1989). Seats and Votes. The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems. New Haven & London: Yale University Press. [Google Scholar]

[33] Tóka, G. (2014). Constitutional Principles and Electoral Democracy in Hungary. W: Bos, E., Pócza, K. (red.), Verfassunggebung in konsolidierten Demokratien (s. 309–329). Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG. [Google Scholar]

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